Obama Election Watch

The thrilling idea of shattering a seemingly impenetrable racial barrier — the election of a black man as president of the United States — may be sufficient in itself to draw hundreds of thousands of black Republican voters to the Obama ticket.

Riding on the crest of the Obama candidacy, Democrats tend to think that they virtually own the black vote. This may cause them to overlook a hidden potential of bringing large numbers of black Republican voters into the Democratic fold. The numbers are very large — much larger than most people realize.

In the 2004 presidential election, George W. Bush won 11 percent of all black votes nationwide. This doesn’t seem like much, but when we convert this percentage to the actual votes cast, we learn that 1.5 million African Americans voted for Bush. Bush won the election by about 3 million votes. We see then that if the 1.5 million black votes Bush received had instead gone to John Kerry, the popular vote in the entire United States would have been a virtual tie.

But today the historic political event in which a black candidate has been nominated to run on the Democratic ticket has changed everything. A large number of black Republicans now may be persuaded to vote for a Democrat for the simple reason that their vote may help put an African American in the White House. And to see this happen, large numbers of black Republicans may be willing to change party allegiance in the fall election.

The highly influential former GOP Congressman J.C. Watts of Oklahoma has said he is considering voting for Obama. Conservative talk-show host Armstrong Williams, who has never voted for a Democratic nominee in his life, is considering voting for Obama. Reportedly, Colin Powell, who has worked in three Republican administrations, will back Obama.

Listen to the words of John McWhorter, a distinguished African-American linguist who is a senior fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute. He told USA Today, “Obama is probably more to the left than I would prefer on a lot of issues. But this issue of getting past race for real is such a wedge issue for me. And he is so intelligent, and I think he would be a perfectly competent president. That’s why I’m for him.”

Clearly an exciting new opportunity is presented for Obama to court and win a number of black Republican voters.

There are other reasons why black Republicans may now be attracted to the Obama campaign:

• Obama brings a strong conservative message of family responsibility. He has spoken harshly of young black men who sire babies and fail to take responsibility for their upbringing.

• A vote for Obama and for his success would affirm the traditional position of black conservatives, that hard work and diligent pursuit of education can overcome the burden of race discrimination.

• Obama has suggested that socioeconomic affirmative action may be more important than racial preferences. This could put an end to the stigma that black conservatives particularly believe to be the result of consequences of preferences.

• The election of a black man in the White House would immeasurably improve America’s repuation throughout the world as a genuine land of opportunity and equal treatment.

• A vote for Obama and the success of his message calling for a post-racial society will diminish the role of black spokespeople such as Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, individuals who many black Republicans view with great disdain.

• Many black Republicans will look favorably on Obama’s position endorsing a wider government authority to collect intelligence to protect the United States against terrorism.

• Obama’s proposal to funnel social welfare money through faith-based and religious organizations may draw the votes of some black conservatives from the religious right.

• Obama’s platform offers tax advantages for small businesses. Also, Obama would expand opportunities for minority contractors. Many black Republicans are small business owners and would benefit from these proposals.

The target states where votes of black conservatives can be won are obviously the ones where even small shifts of any voting bloc could be decisive. These states include Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, and Michigan.

Where specifically are the black conservative voters to be found? The best bet appears to be Ohio. In the 2004 presidential election, results show that approximately 135,000 blacks in Ohio voted for President Bush instead of John Kerry. Bush beat Kerry in Ohio by less than 119,000 votes. Therefore, if less than half of the 135,000 black Republicans who voted for Bush in Ohio in 2004 had switched to Kerry, the Democratic candidate would have won Ohio and in fact the White House.