Obama Election Watch

The Obama campaign is now in a position to show 27 million Hispanic voters how McCain’s new decision to support a ban on affirmative action could severely damage the college opportunities of hundreds of thousands of college-bound Hispanic youth.

Ten years ago John McCain opposed a bill in the Arizona legislature that would have banned affirmative action for Hispanics in college admissions. No surprise there. He is a senator from a state where 25 percent of the voters are Hispanic.

Over the past 30 years affirmative action rules have been the principal instrument for helping young Hispanics gain access to good opportunities in higher education. This has been public policy for the most part because, due to the language and cultural barriers, the average score of Hispanics on standardized college admissions tests tend to be at least 10 percent below the average score for non-Hispanic whites.

Today there are 1.8 million Hispanic Americans in colleges and universities in the United States. Large numbers of them would not be there but for the benefits of affirmative action. Also, as a result of affirmative action policies, there are tens of thousands of Hispanic Americans today in our most selective colleges and universities. Again, without affirmative action, very few of these Hispanic students would have been admitted.

Senator McCain has always presented himself as a man of principle, rather than of expediency. Now, apparently for political reasons, McCain has changed his mind on affirmative action. McCain announced that he supports the new so-called Arizona Civil Rights Initiative that would ban the use of race as a positive factor in admissions to public institutions of higher education. The initiative has since been  pulled off the ballot  in  Arizona  because  many  of the nominating signatures  submitted  by the initiative’s supportered were  deemed  invalid.

If the McCain-supported initiative were to become law, admissions officials at public universities in Arizona will no longer be permitted to give any consideration whatsoever to the race of an applicant. In addition, public universities in Arizona will no longer be permitted to count on affirmative action as an aid to increase racial diversity in their faculties. Finally, in awarding scholarship aid, it would be illegal in Arizona to give even the slightest edge to Hispanic Americans.

More important, there is a national impact in the McCain decision. In supporting the proposed Arizona ban on affirmative action, McCain is putting his prestige behind existing efforts to abolish affirmative action admissions throughout the country. Proposals similar to Arizona’s will also be on the ballot this November in Nebraska and Colorado.

Let’s assess the damage McCain’s new position could inflict on college-bound Hispanics. Of the total Arizona population, there are at least 400,000 Hispanic youngsters alive today who will eventually reach college age. In the entire nation currently there are at least 11 million Hispanic children under the age of 18. If the ban, now supported by McCain, is instituted nationwide under a McCain presidency, all of these students will be denied the admissions opportunities that have been so important to Hispanic students in the past.

Consider now the political folly of the position McCain has decided to take. There are millions of Hispanic youth in New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Texas, New York, and New Jersey who would be denied the advantage of affirmative action under the view now expressly supported by McCain. If informed of the damage that McCain’s policy would impose on the educational opportunities of their children, Hispanic parents are not likely to vote for McCain.

A key state is Florida where the Hispanic population numbers about 3 million. Affirmative action in college admissions has already been banned in Florida. But McCain’s new support of a ban on affirmative action for Hispanics in Arizona will send a strong negative message to Hispanic voters in Florida. McCain’s position with Hispanic voters in Florida is already frail. His new opposition to affirmative action applicable to Hispanics everywhere will almost surely cause substantial erosion in the Hispanic support he now enjoys in that state. Hispanics’ support for McCain in other key states such as New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado will also suffer.

This is not the end of it. Over the years at least 300 colleges and universities have followed scholarship policies that tend to give an edge to Hispanic students, particularly those from low-income families. A McCain presidency committed to banning affirmative action nationwide would put an end to this valuable financial benefit for many millions of college-bound Hispanic students.

To be considered also is the fact that there are 170,000 American Indian students in college, 10 percent of whom are enrolled at colleges and universities in Arizona. They too have benefited from affirmative action in college admissions. American Indians make up 5 percent of the electorate in Arizona and nearly 10 percent of all voters in the swing state of New Mexico. They too would be denied the benefits of affirmative action.

Barack Obama has a solid record of support for affirmative action for college admissions for blacks, Hispanics, and other disadvantaged minorities. He has effectively defended his position on this controversial issue. His election campaign is in a solid position now to publicize McCain’s new policy and to take political advantage of the harm McCain’s stance will do to millions of Hispanic voters.

Good news for Obama in his efforts to win Hispanic voters.