Obama Election Watch

Barack Obama can count on the votes of at least 9 out of every 10 African Americans who make it to the polls. The problem is that there appears to be 9 million or more adult black Americans who may not show up to vote in the presidential election this fall.

A lot of Democratic Party officials are deluded in a belief that an overwhelmingly large percentage of African Americans will automatically flock to the polls this November simply because an African-American man will head the ticket.

But as one black voter in Michigan told OEW, “They are counting their eggs when they have no chickens.”

There remains widespread voter apathy in hundreds of black communities in this country. Many African Americans cling to the belief that Obama, as a black man, simply can’t be elected president. Others are concerned that the economy is so dismal that even if Obama is elected, nothing will change. Others resent Obama’s “tough love” Bill Cosby-like lectures to young blacks to get their act together. Some African Americans believe Obama is an elitist with little concern for the black men and women on the street. This past Friday, Obama was heckled by a group of young blacks at a town-hall meeting in St. Petersburg, Florida. The young African Americans held up a sign that read, “What about the black community, Obama?”

It is urgent to devise strategies so that very large numbers of the 9 million African Americans who have refrained from voting in the past will turn out to vote this November.

Here we show that there is a huge cadre of potential black voters who can have a major impact on Obama’s chances for election as president of the United States.

• Today eligible black voters in Ohio number more than 1 million. Hundreds of thousands of them have not registered to vote. In 2004 John Kerry lost the state of Ohio by fewer than 119,000 votes, and as a result he lost the nationwide presidential election.

• In the potential swing state of Virginia, blacks make up 20 percent of the electorate, yet in Virginia today there are as many as 200,000 unregistered African Americans. Polls in Virginia suggest that the race will be neck and neck. One immediately sees the importance of building the black vote in Virginia.

• In Pennsylvania, Obama can fortify his prospects for capturing the state’s 21 electoral votes by increasing black voter registration and turnout. There are an estimated 200,000 unregistered black voters in Pennsylvania.

• In Michigan, polls suggest the election will be extremely tight. There are still 300,000 unregistered black voters in Michigan, a large majority of them in the Detroit metropolitan area. (See OEW’s earlier post on the black vote in Michigan.)

• In Florida, since the beginning of this year, more than 63,000 African Americans have registered to vote in Florida. But there are still as many as 200,000 eligible blacks who have not registered to vote.

• Polls in Missouri show a close race between McCain and Obama. Yet 100,000 or more blacks remain unregistered to vote. Increased black voter turnout in St. Louis and Kansas City could swing a close election to Obama.

• In North Carolina, where Obama hopes to pull off an upset, more than 45,000 new black voters have been registered this year. But 300,000 black adults have not signed up to vote.

The potential of unregistered black voters is huge. But this force will not fall into place without a concerted organizational effort by the Obama campaign and an inspirational plea by the candidate himself. These black voters need to be inspired. They need to feel that they are part of the historic change that Obama hopes to bring to this country. They need hope that change will finally bring them a better life.

In employing his remarkable oratorical skills, Obama must lead and inspire those blacks who up to this time have failed to see the promise of American democracy.