Fighting for Each Electoral Vote: An Opportunity for Obama in Nebraska
At this point, it appears that the vote in the Electoral College could be extremely close. There are even some scenarios where a 269-269 tie could occur.
Under these circumstances, every state and every electoral vote is important.
In 48 of the 50 states, the candidate who wins a plurality of the popular vote is awarded all of the particular state’s electoral votes. But in Nebraska and Maine, the winner of the popular vote statewide gets two electoral votes and the winner of the popular vote in each congressional district is awarded one electoral vote.
To date, neither state has ever split its electoral votes. But in 2008 it is not out of the realm of possibility that Barack Obama could siphon away an electoral vote from Nebraska’s Second Congressional District. McCain holds a large lead in statewide polls, but the Second District, which is geographically small and encompasses the Omaha metropolitan area, offers an opportunity for Obama. Blacks make up more than 10 percent of the district’s population and there is a large student population. Obama is extremely popular in Iowa, just a few miles east of downtown Omaha.
In the same vein, Obama must be careful to defend the one electoral vote in Maine’s Second Congressional District. Obama holds a statewide lead in Maine and is popular in the heavily populated southeastern coastal region of Maine, which is home of Maine’s First Congressional District.
The Second District includes all of the rural areas of western and northern Maine. In terms of square miles, it is the largest congressional district in the eastern United States. In 2004 George Bush thought he had a chance to win the one electoral vote of the district, but in the end John Kerry prevailed. But remember that Kerry was a fellow New Englander. It is uncertain whether this very rural, almost all white area will support Obama.
The Obama campaign would be wise not to take Maine’s Second Congressional District for granted.
Nebraska is not an opportunity at all for Obama. Nebraska Democrats would have voted for Hilliary but were outmaneuvered by people who wanted a caucus to put Obama in. Nebraska Democrats changed the election from a primary to a caucus. The impact is clear - - disenfranchised voters.