Latino Voters Are the Key to
Turning New Mexico Blue
In 2004 President Bush carried the state of New Mexico by a mere 6,000 votes. Nearly 800,000 votes were cast. Four years earlier in 2000, Al Gore won New Mexico by a razor-thin margin of only 366 votes. Polls in New Mexico show that once again the race is tight. This year New Mexico’s five electoral votes could decide the nationwide presidential election.
The key to Obama’s winning the state of New Mexico lies in increasing voter turnout among Latinos. There are 450,000 eligible Hispanic-American voters in New Mexico. They make up about one third of the total electorate in the state. In 2004 the number of Hispanics who chose not to vote was at least 20 times Bush’s margin of victory in the state.
There are several counties in the state where the Obama campaign might concentrate efforts to appeal to Hispanic voters by broadcasting his solid economic plan for low- and middle-income families.
Bernalillo County, which includes the city of Albuquerque, is the major prize. The county casts about one third of the statewide vote. There are nearly 90,000 Hispanics in the county who make up 38 percent of all voters. John Kerry narrowly carried the county in the 2004 elections with a margin of just under 11,000 votes. Today Democrats hold a 44,000 edge in voter registrations in the county. Therefore, this appears to be a place where Obama can build upon the success achieved by Kerry four years ago.
Dona Ana County on the border with Mexico in the southern part of the state is 58 percent Hispanic. But John Kerry won the county by only 2,200 voters. Democrats now have a huge 20,000 edge over the GOP in voter registrations in Dona Ana County.
There are a number of rural counties where Hispanics make up a large percentage of the total electorate that George Bush won in 2004. Colfax County and Harding County in the northeastern corner of the state are rural and sparsely populated. Hispanics make up more than 40 percent of all voters. Yet George W. Bush carried both counties in 2004.
In Hidalgo County in the southwestern corner of the state, Hispanics are a majority of the electorate. But Bush carried Hidalgo County with 55 percent of the vote. Clearly, with a message geared toward Hispanic voters, Obama can make major inroads in Hidalgo and other rural counties with large Hispanic populations.
Taos County and San Miguel County in the northeastern part of the state have large numbers of Hispanic voters. Taos and San Miguel counties have Hispanic majorities and huge edges in Democratic registrations. These counties traditionally support Democratic candidates, but an effort to increase voter turnout in the Democratic strongholds can boost Obama’s statewide vote totals which would make it extremely difficult for McCain to carry the state.
Santa Fe County, which includes the state capital, is 45 percent Hispanic. There are also huge numbers of liberal non-Hispanic whites in Santa Fe County. They tend to be very environmentally conscious and can be courted by exposing John McCain’s dreadful record on environmental issues. (See earlier OEW post.)
Not to be overlooked are the large number of Hispanic students at the University of New Mexico and New Mexico State University at Las Cruces. At the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque, there are nearly 26,000 students and a third are Hispanic. There are nearly 17,000 students at New Mexico State University’s main campus and over 40 percent of them are Hispanic. Not only are these campuses good places to win votes, but Hispanic students at these campuses can be solicited as campaign volunteers to spread the Obama message to the Latino community.
The Obama campaign has a major ally in New Mexico — Governor Bill Richardson who is of Hispanic descent. Governor Richardson took the bold step of endorsing Obama during the primary season despite longstanding ties to the Clintons. Governor Richardson introduced Obama at a rally in Albuquerque on Monday. Undoubtedly, Richardson will be available to campaign side by side with Obama throughout the fall campaign in efforts to swing large numbers of Hispanic voters to the Democratic ticket.
Will someone please remind the world that 911 happened during the Bush Administration. The players in 911 were trained to fly those planes in the U.S. during Bush’s watch. Most of the defendants were on a terriost list.
I cannot believe that these facts are not in a campaign ad. Republicans continue to rub in our faces how strong John McCain is in foreign policies. The Republicans can’t even keep us safe
at home. Then they went after the wrong man.
From what I can see is John McCain was captured. HE GOT CAUGHT! The war was going on without him for 5 1/2 years. What makes him such an expert in foreign affairs?
Come on let’s get tough, let’s call a spade a SPADE. Let’s show the world how weak the Republicans are in defense.
I can’t beleave at this early hour I am giving my opinion on how I see this election getting away from the dems. I speak from local political experience but most importantly as an Americanwho is concerned about the future of this great country. W hen I go to Washington I love to go the monuments that we have erected to thank those great leaders that GOT IT. I read the language in the Lincoln Memorial and the FDR memorial and am awstruck by their wisdom and their ability to lead. When you visit the Arlington Cemetery and watch the memorial service of a young marine that was killed in Iraq in a war that was founded by distortions and untruths you truly understand the imortance of this election. This election is not about McCain /Palin Obama/ Biden and for a brief moment I thought Obama got it. Its way more Important than the canidates they our vehicles to express the tremendous differences in this election. However if Obama continues to get of message and not truly articulates what makes us the party of change the party that cares about those that have lost their jobs and truly want toput America back to work and truly wants to protect our shores from terrorist we our going to loose. We do not need to go down to their level that is there plan and we are biting. McCain/Palin are Bush/Chaney we cannot afford that to happen again. Dems love America lets get back on message lets look at the language of a FDR,Lincoln,Truman,JFK ,Clinton, MLK and reclaim our country so that we have a chance for a future. P.S. Its time for Obama to lead.