Obama Election Watch

Most people think that New Hampshire doesn’t count much in presidential elections. Think again. Razor-thin margins in small states sometimes control elections. Had Al Gore won the state of New Hampshire in 2000, he would have been elected president.

Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania are the heavy-hitting so-called blue states most often mentioned as the ones where Barack Obama must apply campaign funds and organizational muscle to defend traditional Democratic turf. True, the loss of any of these heavily populated states will make it difficult for Obama to amass the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the White House.

There is an obvious tendency to think that scarcely populated New Hampshire with four electoral votes won’t have much effect on the final November outcome. But in a very close Electoral College count, tiny New Hampshire could swing the election to one candidate or the other. Had Al Gore won the state of New Hampshire in 2000, he would have been elected president.

New Hampshire holds some special problems for Obama. It is almost entirely white. Unlike many states there is no base of black or Latino voters to help him build a winning coalition of voters. Also, the state has been very good to John McCain. McCain won the New Hampshire GOP presidential primary in both 2000 and 2008. This year a win in New Hampshire jump-started a McCain campaign that many observers had given up for dead. Many New Hampshire voters identify McCain as an independent and a maverick, which fits right into New Hampshire’s view of its own political identity.

Republicans hold a slim 5,000 voter registration edge over Democrats in New Hampshire. But New Hampshirites pride themselves on their independence. There are more voters in New Hampshire who are independents than there are either Republicans or Democrats.

Recent polls show Obama with a very slim lead in New Hampshire. But don’t overlook the so-called Bradley Effect where black candidates in predominantly white areas do better in pre-election polls than they do in the actual election. Remember, too, that Obama had a comfortable lead in pre-primary polls this past January in New Hampshire. But Hillary Clinton revived her campaign with an upset win in New Hampshire. So it is quite possible that due to the Bradley Effect, the small Obama lead currently forecast in the polls in New Hampshire will evaporate on Election Day.

What can Obama do to shore up support in New Hampshire? College students can be a major boost to his chances. There are 15,000 students enrolled at the University of New Hampshire in Durham. About 45 percent of the student body is from out of state, many from Massachusetts. At Dartmouth College in Hanover, there are 6,000 students, most of whom are not New Hampshire residents. Most college students — perhaps two thirds or more — are Obama supporters.

New Hampshire makes it easy for out-of-state college students to register to vote in New Hampshire. The Obama campaign can encourage out-of-state students to register to vote in the swing state of New Hampshire rather than in their home states where Obama may have already sewn up a victory.

In targeting localities in New Hampshire where Obama can find votes, there are large pockets of Democratic-leaning voters in the former mill cities of Manchester and Concord. Democrats hold a 55-45 percent edge in voter registrations in Manchester, the state’s largest city, and they have a similar edge in the state capital of Concord.

In addition, there are large blocs of Democratic voters in cities on the southern border of the state such as Nashua, Portsmouth, Rochester, Durham, and Dover. These cities have grown in recent years due in large part to an influx of residents from nearby Massachusetts, a heavily Democratic state. These southern New Hampshire counties are within commuting distance to Boston. Clinton beat Obama in these counties by considerable margins in the January primary, so Obama has some work to do to win support in these areas.

It would be smart for the Obama campaign to concentrate voter registration and get-out-the-vote efforts in the mill cities, university towns, as well as in the New Hampshire counties on the Massachusetts border.