Obama Election Watch

In recent weeks, nationwide polls have shown a definite trend in favor of John McCain. One poll released Wednesday put McCain ahead of Obama nationwide by 5 percentage points. Numerous state polls report McCain is reversing Obama’s lead or is severely cutting into his margins.

McCain’s negative campaign advertisements referring to Obama as a “celebrity” rather than a leader appear to be helping the GOP candidate. Also, Russia’s invasion of the nation of Georgia has raised international tensions. A majority of American voters hold to beliefs that McCain would be a better commander in chief than Obama.

But Obama staffers remain optimistic. In their official assurances that some observers see as brash or overly cocky, Obama’s surrogates tell party regulars that all is well. They say, “Don’t worry, the polls don’t reflect the ‘X factor.’”

This so-called X factor is the advantage that the Obama campaign assigns to its superior campaign organization that was responsible for the upset win over Hillary Clinton and Obama’s record-breaking grass-roots fundraising effort. The X factor includes large numbers of newly registered voters. It includes a hoard of cash from Obama’s remarkably successful Internet fundraising efforts. The X factor also refers to the masses of Obama volunteers and a huge edge over McCain in offices in the field in key battleground states. For example, Obama has opened 33 campaign offices throughout the state of Ohio, compared to only nine for John McCain. In Virginia, Obama has four times as many offices as McCain. In New Mexico, Obama has 18 field offices. McCain has one.

Obama is counting on the X factor to produce a huge increase in black voters and a surge in voting by young people generally to carry him to victory on Election Day. The trouble is that African Americans and young people are the two groups in the nation that traditionally vote at rates well below the rest of the electorate. As we have shown in an earlier OEW post [CLICK HERE], Obama has not overcome persistent voter apathy in the black community. And while student activism for Obama on college campuses appears to be widespread, it must be remembered that a majority of all young people ages 18 to 24 are not enrolled in college and large numbers of young people in college are not registered to vote.

Furthermore, the X factor will not be effective if there is a general perception that Obama is losing ground. People love to jump on the bandwagon of a candidate they believe will win. If Obama’s poll numbers continue to drop, it will be far more difficult to “rally the troops.” If newcomers to the political process suddenly come to believe that Obama has lost his edge, many black voters and young people will probably stay home on Election Day.

George McGovern in 1972 and Hubert Humphrey in 1968 were convinced that a huge surge in voting by young people opposed to the war in Vietnam would carry them to victory. In many respects, young people in that era were far more politically active than youth today. Remember, too, that the very popular George McGovern lost in 49 states.

Obama’s staffers who look to the X factor to dismiss the importance of current poll numbers neglect to mention another factor that will undoubtedly come into play. This is the much discussed Bradley Effect, a well-documented phenomenon named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley. Under the Bradley Effect, a black candidate’s poll numbers turn out to be significantly better than the actual vote he receives in the election. Most observers believe that the difference is due to white voters’ reluctance to be truthful to pollsters for fear that they might give the appearance of racism.

In some cases the Bradley Effect could wipe out or even surpass the value of the X factor. Due to the Bradley Effect, Obama’s current slim 3-point lead in Pennsylvania and his razor-thin margins in Michigan and Minnesota might evaporate on Election Day.

There is no doubt that building a huge and dynamic campaign organization is sound political strategy. Indeed the Obama campaign’s use of the Internet has been pure genius. It provides a roadmap for all future presidential campaigns. Further building and innovative exploitation of superior campaign infrastructure will be essential if Obama is to win the November election.

But let’s get back to basics. Reliance on a reversal of longstanding voter motivations will not be sufficient to win the November election. The Obama campaign must show voters that the Obama plan for the economy is far superior to that of John McCain. Obama must reverse voter uneasiness about his ability to keep the country safe. Millions of white voters need to be reassured that Obama will “not give away the store” to blacks and other minorities. Obama must show blue-collar workers that he is not aloof and understands their concerns. Polls show that the constant complaint among working-class voters is that “he don’t understand us.” Obama must convince voters that he has the ability to get things done rather than just inspire hope and talk of change. In short, Obama still has a lot to do to make a solid case to the American people.

The fact that polls are close when the economy has seen a serious downturn demonstrates that a majority of American voters have not been convinced that Obama is ready to be president. Unless Obama can make the case that he is ready and that he is a far better alternative than John McCain, no amount of political organization or X factor is going to carry the day.