Obama Election Watch

Over the past half-century, Ohio has been the nation’s most reliable bellwether state. In each presidential election since 1960, Ohio has backed the winning candidate. In 2004 the voting percentages for Bush and Kerry exactly matched the nationwide vote totals. And Ohio is especially important because it carries a major prize — 20 electoral votes.

Today, polls show that the race between Barack Obama and John McCain is neck and neck in Ohio. The polling trend has been moving in McCain’s favor.

Obama enjoys monolithic support among black voters in Cleveland, Cincinnati, and other Ohio cities. But Obama’s polling numbers in rural Ohio are very weak. In the Democratic primaries, he was beaten badly in these areas by Hillary Clinton.

The election in Ohio — and quite possibly the entire nation — could hinge on Obama’s success in convincing white working-class voters that he would be a better president than John McCain. In securing these votes, Obama must hammer home to voters the fact that Ohio has been hemorrhaging manufacturing jobs over the eight years of the Bush presidency.

Since George W. Bush took office, the number of manufacturing jobs in Ohio has dropped by 236,000. Since 2000, more than 840 manufacturing plants in Ohio have closed their doors. This past June, Ohio had an unemployment rate of 6.6 percent. Only six of the other 49 states had a higher unemployment rate.

Given Ohio’s importance in this year’s presidential election, Obama must allocate major campaign resources to bring his message of economic reform to working-class voters in the state. Newspaper and television advertising focusing on Obama’s economic program for working-class families must saturate every available media market in the state. Also, Obama must personally campaign in Ohio’s largest cities such as Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Columbus, where many of the state’s manufacturing jobs remain.

But Obama also must connect with the smaller manufacturing cities of Toledo, Ashland, Akron, Sandusky, Canton, Youngstown, and Dayton, where a large segment of the economy remains based in manufacturing. Obama can boost his statewide totals by energizing working-class voters in the eastern counties along the Pennsylvania border where Democratic registrations outnumber GOP voters by margins of 3 to 1 or more. Counties in eastern Ohio with lopsided Democratic majorities include Trumbull, Mahoning, Jefferson, Belmont, Monroe, Tuscarawas, and Harrison.

Not to be overlooked are the rural counties, particularly in southern Ohio which have traditionally tended to favor Democrats. But here so far, the Obama candidacy has met with resistance. (CLICK HERE for earlier OEW post.)

Given the economic situation in Ohio, the state should be hungry for a candidate promoting change. But Obama’s low poll numbers in the state suggest that to date his campaign has done a poor job conveying an economic message appealing to a majority of working-class voters.

Given the importance of Ohio in the national presidential election, this must become one of the major priorities of the Obama campaign.