Obama Election Watch

Pennsylvania has been a consistent blue state in the last four presidential elections. But look at the vote more closely. In examining voting totals by county, one discovers that in fact Pennsylvania is a very red state — but one with some dark blue speckles.

Some commentators have shrewdly referred to Pennsylvania as “Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between.”

What is the situation today? Current polls show Obama with a slight but far from comfortable lead in the Keystone State. But the fact that Obama polled poorly among Pennsylvania’s white voters in April’s Democratic primary has John McCain licking his chops over the prospect of winning Pennsylvania’s critical bloc of 21 electoral votes.

But there are important voting pockets in Pennsylvania where changing demographics could produce much higher vote totals for Obama than has been the case for past Democratic presidential candidates.

Increased organizational focus and campaign dollars allocated to these geographic areas could swing many voters to the Democratic ticket in the following areas:

• Lehigh Valley: The Lehigh Valley cities of Allentown, Easton, and Bethlehem were once the nation’s industrial core. Now the huge Bethlehem Steel plant, which has sat idle for decades, is being converted into a casino. The Lehigh Valley area is undergoing a major economic resurgence led by the healthcare, education, and high-tech industries. These are activities that produce a lot of young voters. And Obama invariably has shown a major advantage over John McCain in attracting younger voters.

The number of Democratic voters in the two-county Lehigh Valley area is up 16 percent since the 2004 presidential election while the total number of registered Republican voters is down. Based on registration numbers alone in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh and Northampton counties, Obama could pick up a net 25,000 or more vote gain over the totals won by John Kerry in 2004. In a close race, this could be crucial. There are more than 430,000 voters in these two counties which is about 5 percent of the total statewide electorate.

Obama’s campaign to organize voters in these two counties could get a solid boost from the large number of colleges and universities within a 10-mile radius of downtown Bethlehem. These include Lehigh University, Lafayette College, Northampton Community College, Cedar Crest College, DeSales University, Moravian College, Muhlenberg College, and Penn State-Lehigh Valley. Combined, these higher educational institutions enroll nearly 30,000 students.

Here is a virtual army of potential volunteers that could fan out over the Lehigh Valley spreading the Obama message.

In the Lehigh Valley, Obama’s healthcare proposals and plans for revitalizing inner-city neighborhoods should be a winning strategy. Also, there are small pockets of blacks and Hispanics in inner-city precincts of Allentown, South Bethlehem, and Easton where get-out-the vote campaigns would work well. The mayors of all three cities did endorse Hillary Clinton over Obama in the Democratic primary. But the political machines of all three cities should work to get out the Democratic vote this November.

• Suburban Philadelphia: In 2004 John Kerry narrowly carried the suburban areas in Bucks County, Montgomery County, and Delaware County surrounding Philadelphia. These traditional bastions of white, suburban Republicans have become increasingly Democratic in recent years. And the evidence is that this trend appears to be continuing. Outmigration from Democratic areas of Philadelphia to the suburbs is one reason for this change.
In Montgomery County, which includes many high-income suburbs north and west of the city, Republicans held a 54,000 voter registration advantage over Democrats in 2004. Now there are 10,000 more Democrats than Republicans. In Bucks County, to the north and east of the city, a 25,000 Republican advantage has turned to a 4,000 edge for the Democrats. In Delaware County, west of downtown Philadelphia, the GOP still holds a 30,000 edge in voter registrations. But in 2004 the GOP advantage was much larger: 82,000 voters.

• Poconos: This area in the extreme northeastern part of Pennsylvania includes the state’s fastest growing counties. The population has surged with most of the newcomers migrating from heavily Democratic areas of New York and New Jersey. Two decades ago, Pike and Monroe counties were almost all white. Now there are many black and Hispanic voters in these two counties. In 2006 the area elected Chris Carney, the first Democrat to serve the region in Congress for decades. In what was once a solid GOP bastion, Democrats now control the county government in Monroe County, the largest of the Pocono counties. In 2004 voter registrations in Monroe County were essentially equal. Now Democrats hold a 56-44 edge.

• Centre County: President Bush carried the county by a bare 3,000 votes in 2004. But now Democrats have emerged with a 3,000 edge in voter registrations.

But the biggest target is yet to be exploited in Centre County. This is the main campus of Penn State University. There are 43,000 students on the Penn State campus. In fact, the number of Penn State students is greater than the total vote Bush received in Centre County in the 2004 election. Clearly many of these students vote in their home counties. And probably there are large numbers of them who do not vote at all. Obama’s campaign would make solid gains by mounting a voter registration drive near the Penn State campus. This would inform students that they are eligible to vote in Centre County and would have a direct impact on the election outcome in an important swing state.