Obama Election Watch

To keep Wisconsin in the Democratic column this November, Obama needs to generate more black voters in Milwaukee. He must forcefully cite the Bush-McCain economy to appeal to working-class white voters in industrial cities. Finally, he needs to hold the traditional rural Democratic counties in the southwestern part of the state.

Wisconsin has been in the Democratic column in every election since the Reagan landslide of 1984. So one might ask, why should Obama worry about this Democratic stronghold? The reason is that Democratic presidential candidates have consistently won in Wisconsin by only razor-thin margins. And polls this year show that Wisconsin remains a key battleground state.

This past summer, polls showed Obama with a double-digit lead in Wisconsin. But voters in the state appear to have responded to McCain’s maverick message of reform. Also, the nomination of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential candidate has given a major boost to the GOP ticket in Wisconsin. Palin’s own image as a working woman and a hockey mom has solid appeal in many areas of Wisconsin. Recent polls in Wisconsin show that the race is now close.

John McCain’s image as a maverick sells well in Wisconsin, a state with a long history of politicians who did well by taking positions outside the party line. The ultimate senate maverick was William Proxmire, who served as a Wisconsin senator for more than 30 years until his retirement in 1998. Earlier in the twentieth century, Robert LaFollette, who as governor, senator, and candidate for president, was a dedicated reformer and populist. In the 1990s GOP governor Tommy Thompson led an effort toward comprehensive welfare reform that was later adopted at the national level. Now Russ Feingold, a current U.S. senator from Wisconsin, is considered a maverick who teamed up with John McCain to push through bipartisan legislation on campaign finance.

As in a number of northern states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, it is important that Obama develops further support among black voters in urban areas. This is critical, particularly in the city of Milwaukee. But there remains widespread black voter apathy in the city. In addition, there are lingering suspicions among black voters resulting from a subversive effort mounted by a group calling itself the Milwaukee Black Voters League. This group launched a “dirty tricks” operation consisting of a wide distribution of a flier warning African Americans that they would be arrested if they had outstanding parking tickets or other warrants if they showed up at the polls. These fears may have been accented this year by widespread accusations of voter fraud during the registration period this summer. This has resulted in greater scrutiny of voter qualifications. Obama needs to assure black voters in Milwaukee that they can safely exercise their voting rights without fear of facing punishment due to minor infractions or nonpayment of alimony or child support.

Blacks make up only 6 percent of the total voting population in Wisconsin. Obviously, Obama needs good support among whites to win the state’s 10 electoral votes. A major target area is Dane County, which includes the state capital of Madison and the flagship campus of the University of Wisconsin. The University of Wisconsin is one of the nation’s largest universities with more than 41,000 students. Undoubtedly, large numbers of students will be willing to volunteer for Obama and fan out throughout the state working on his behalf. John Kerry won a massive 90,000 vote victory in Dane County in 2004. Obama may be able to increase this margin in Dane County and thereby improve his chances of winning Wisconsin.

Obama should also be strong in the industrial cities of Kenosha, Kimberly, Racine, and Jamesville. These cities are hurting economically. Plants are being shut down, jobs are being sent overseas, and unemployment is rising. Obama must show working-class white voters that John McCain has been an opponent of increasing unemployment benefits and a strong opponent of raising the minimum wage. Obama needs to convince white voters in Wisconsin cities that John McCain’s laissez-faire economic agenda of nonintervention would continue the Bush administration’s policies, which have led to depression conditions in Wisconsin cities.

The November election may be decided in the southwestern part of the state which is largely rural, farm country. In 2004 John Kerry carried Buffalo, Pepin, Pierce, La Crosse, Vernon, and Grant counties on the western border of the state. Yet in each case the Democrats won less than 54 percent of the vote. Can Obama hold on to these predominantly white, rural counties in the November election? It is encouraging that Obama did outpoll Hillary Clinton in these counties in the Wisconsin primary this year. But Obama cannot take these rural western counties for granted.