Obama Election Watch

With Obama riding high in the polls, many pundits have written off John McCain’s chances of winning the presidential election. But in American politics, four weeks can be an eternity. Only four weeks ago, John McCain had a lead in most national polls.

McCain has pulled out of Michigan, once thought to be his best chance of picking up a blue state that had been won by John Kerry in 2004. McCain continues to spend a pile of money on television advertising in Pennsylvania. He visited the state with Sarah Palin on Wednesday. But most polls in Pennsylvania show that Obama now has a double-digit lead.

It seems likely that all the blue states in 2004 will remain blue in 2008. This gives Obama a solid base of 252 electoral votes. Also, it appears that Obama may win the states of Iowa and New Mexico, two red states in 2004. This would give Obama 264 electoral votes, only six short of the total needed to win the presidency.

It appears now that if McCain is to win this election, he has to count on holding all of the other red states won by George W. Bush in 2004. This means that McCain needs to hold all of the following states: Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, and Ohio. If Obama wins any one of these states, he is likely to be the next president.

The Obama camp is actively campaigning in all these states and could amass an Electoral College landslide if all or most of these states tip in his direction. But if the campaign tightens in the weeks ahead, which of these states offers Obama the best chance for success?

OEW recommends that efforts be concentrated in Florida and Virginia.

Florida has a solid base of black voters who will overwhelmingly vote the Democratic ticket. Florida also has a large bloc of Hispanic voters who tend to vote Democratic. Polls show that young Cuban voters in South Florida may be more inclined than older Cuban Americans to support Obama. There also are a large number of Jewish voters in Florida and, traditionally, American Jews are loyal Democrats.

Florida is also the state with the largest percentage of senior citizens. Polls in Florida have swung Obama’s way since the recent turmoil in the credit and financial markets. Seniors are worried that they will not have enough money for their retirement years. Obama can rally seniors to the Democratic ticket by showing McCain’s negative record on support for Medicare and low-cost prescription drugs. Obama can also win seniors by pointing out that McCain supported Bush’s risky plan to privatize social security.

In Virginia, Obama has an even larger base of black voters to work with. There are approximately one million eligible black voters in Virginia. They make up about one fifth of the total electorate. There are also small but significant numbers of Asian voters and a slightly smaller bloc of Hispanics. Both of these groups tend to favor Democratic candidates. Together these minority voters give Obama a solid base.

Democrats recently won one U.S. Senate seat in Virginia and they are poised to pick up the second seat this November. Governor Tim Kaine is also a Democrat.

In Virginia more than 150,000 new voters have registered so far this year. About 45 percent of these new voters are under the age of 25, a demographic group that has been highly supportive of Obama.

There are large numbers of military personnel and retired veterans who live in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, home to nine large military installations. Obama can make inroads by campaigning in the area on McCain’s dreadful record in failing to support veterans benefits and, particularly, his neglect of care for the wounded warriors of the Iraq war.

It is very unlikely that McCain can assemble a 270 vote Electoral College majority without both Florida and Virginia. If Obama can pick off one of these traditional red states, he will be the next president.